Tool
Elo win probability
Pick two teams — or type in Elo ratings by hand — to see each side's odds in a single game or a full series. Set a date to ask historical questions, like what G2's chances were against Gen.G. A bigger lead is worth a lot more in a Bo5 than a Bo1.
Matchup
Team A
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vs
Team B
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vs
Series format
Team A wins
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Team B wins
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What an Elo lead is worth
The favorite's win probability at a given rating gap. Notice how the longer the series, the more a lead pays off.
| Elo lead | Game | Best of 3 | Best of 5 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Even | 50% | 50% | 50% |
| +50 | 57% | 61% | 63% |
| +100 | 64% | 70% | 75% |
| +150 | 70% | 79% | 84% |
| +200 | 76% | 85% | 91% |
| +300 | 85% | 94% | 97% |
| +400 | 91% | 98% | 99% |
Odds use the standard Elo logistic (a 400-point gap ≈ 91% in a single game) and assume games are independent. Real matches aren't perfectly independent — momentum, drafts, and side selection all matter — so treat these as a baseline, not a guarantee. What is Elo?